Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Features

• Cover Type: Hard Cover with 264 pages
• Published by: Princeton University Press September 29, 2003
• Written in: English
• ISBN 10 Number: 0691116695
• ISBN 13 Number: 978-0691116693
• Book Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.5 x 1.1 inches
• Weighs: 1.2 pounds

Product Review
An important, original, and timely book--richly detailed and gorgeously thought out.
(Jack A. Goldstone, University of California, Davis )

Product Description


Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.

Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Reader Reviews
This is a very good effort. The author goes through basic knowledge about complex systems and its basic math and then slowly brings historical trends and changes into the picture. This is a very good way to learn about history and a very easy way to remember historical events if the reader follows Turchin's approach. Again a good read for those who want to learn history using the most natural approach.